Economics, predicted that the two giants: the U.S. economy is inevitable double-dip recession

Economics, predicted that the two giants: the U.S. economy is inevitable double-dip recession
http://www.maozdong.com/ 2010-1-7 10:32:00 maozdong.com


Nobel laureate in economics, Princeton University economics professor Paul Krugman, and Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach both recently issued a warning: a double-dip recession was inevitable. Krugman believes that the U.S. will have at least three possibilities will once again into recession, while the Roach believes the world will be faced with this risk.

Face a double-dip recession this year or

For the current economic situation, the two economists have said not optimistic. Krugman said that the place is not the possibility of a double-dip recession is low, but ranged between 30-40%. Roach said that because of the economic recovery, "stall" and this world will be facing a double-dip recession risks.

Krugman on the 5th interview, said that slowing economic growth, and once again the possibility of pushing up the unemployment rate is greater than 50%. He said: "stimulative impact of the measures are beginning to gradually subside, and in the middle of the year attributable to the intangible. Although a rebound in stocks are driving the current market pick up, but its effects will gradually disappear." He also pointed out that the United States in the third quarter last year, 2.2% of the GDP growth rate is not enough to reduce unemployment.

Roach was further extended to this concern on a global scale. 5, wrote in his Bloomberg column that is based on four aspects of the global economic rebound of the vitality and sustainability is uncertainty. First, the financial crisis itself is not over yet. Roach quoted IMF (International Monetary Fund) said the latest estimates, the global toxic assets may be set aside about 3.4 trillion of asset impairment. To date, the realized asset impairment is also only about half that amount, which shows the profitability of financial institutions will further damage will be limited lending capacity.

Exit Strategy Risk into focus

In the market for a double-dip recession in the debate, the exit strategy is seen as a greater threat, it is also a focus on the two economists, one of the issues.

Krugman believes that the Fed plans to end in March of this year amounted to 1.25 trillion U.S. dollars of mortgage-backed securities purchase plan, as well as the total amount of about 175 billion U.S. dollars in federal agency securities acquisition plans. As the "exit strategy" as part of the content, which could lead to mortgage interest rates rise 1 percentage point, and thus hinder the economic recovery process. According to mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac reported previously shows that in the end of last December 31 of the week, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.14%, its fourth consecutive weeks of growth, the highest since last 8 the highest level since the month.

In order to promote the recovery of credit markets, the Fed in December 2008 decided to cut its benchmark interest rate to near-zero target range, while acquisition of the assets and credit schemes as the main monetary policy tool. Affected by the Federal Reserve's balance sheet total has grown from early 2007 to 858 billion U.S. dollars to expand to the current 2.24 trillion U.S. dollars.