2010: The U.S. bond market, "Bear" coming?
http://www.shiweilai.com 2010-1-7 10:19:00 shiweilai
With the U.S. economic recovery and the unemployment rate has slowed down, more than a dozen Wall Street investment banks have predicted that the U.S. bond market performance will not optimistic.
A huge deficit and pushing up bond yields
U.S. Treasury prices soared 14% in 2008, later, in 2009, down 3.72%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 23.5% in the final in 2009.
As the U.S. government 2.11 trillion U.S. dollars last year, high debt, investors for the bonds issued by the Government's new interest in getting lower and lower, while the cost of financing government bonds have become increasingly high. Barclays Bank fixed-income investment strategist, said that with the further increase in the government budget deficit, national debt trend will be further suppressed. Goldman Sachs Group, JP Morgan Chase and a number of Wall Street investment banks have also released a report predicts that in 2010 the U.S. 10-year bond yields 3.84% in 2009, based on increased further to 4.14%.
The unemployment rate steady increase in rate hike expectations
Fed's federal funds target rate was kept at near-zero level has more than a year market for a long time loose monetary policy may lead to concerns about inflation risks continue to increase.
December 16 last year, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has the outside world that it would be phased in March this year, the termination of an emergency loan assistance schemes and the purchase of bonds on the open market. After the Federal Reserve again raised December 28, deposits to the bank to sell bills to the progressive recovery of the excess liquidity in the market to prevent the rise of inflation.
Left the program for these preparations, fixed-income analyst at Nomura Securities Lijia Yuan for "First Financial Daily" said that the investors can not expect such a low interest rate environment will continue indefinitely. She said that the right interest rate and monetary policy, the most sensitive of the two-year yield to 0.77% from a year ago, rose to 1.14%, indicating that the market expected the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, a significant increase.
Directed against a number of investment banks on Wall Street analysts survey also showed that the U.S. unemployment rate peaked in the near future, after a gradual decline, the Fed is likely to raise the benchmark rate by 2010, up 0.75 percentage point.
The impact of the bond market Ying
Relative to the bond market's pessimistic expectations, more than 15 large brokerage houses this year is relatively optimistic about the U.S. stock market movements. From JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs stock this year, investment strategist at Standard & Poor's index are expected to increase up to 9.8%, showing an absolute leader in the bond market index.
Barclays Bank economist forecasts GDP growth this year, the United States is expected to reach 3.5%, while the 10-year bond yields will rise to 4.5%. Morgan Stanley's fixed-income market, analysts are given the highest valuation of the 10-year bond yields - 5.5%.
Analysts said that in 2010 the Fed will no longer be buying a large number of various types of bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance, on the contrary there this year, the Fed may sell as much as 2.5 trillion U.S. dollars of various types of bonds, TIPS bonds, which would cause a huge impact on the bond market .
2010年1月7日星期四
Economics, predicted that the two giants: the U.S. economy is inevitable double-dip recession
Economics, predicted that the two giants: the U.S. economy is inevitable double-dip recession
http://www.maozdong.com/ 2010-1-7 10:32:00 maozdong.com
Nobel laureate in economics, Princeton University economics professor Paul Krugman, and Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach both recently issued a warning: a double-dip recession was inevitable. Krugman believes that the U.S. will have at least three possibilities will once again into recession, while the Roach believes the world will be faced with this risk.
Face a double-dip recession this year or
For the current economic situation, the two economists have said not optimistic. Krugman said that the place is not the possibility of a double-dip recession is low, but ranged between 30-40%. Roach said that because of the economic recovery, "stall" and this world will be facing a double-dip recession risks.
Krugman on the 5th interview, said that slowing economic growth, and once again the possibility of pushing up the unemployment rate is greater than 50%. He said: "stimulative impact of the measures are beginning to gradually subside, and in the middle of the year attributable to the intangible. Although a rebound in stocks are driving the current market pick up, but its effects will gradually disappear." He also pointed out that the United States in the third quarter last year, 2.2% of the GDP growth rate is not enough to reduce unemployment.
Roach was further extended to this concern on a global scale. 5, wrote in his Bloomberg column that is based on four aspects of the global economic rebound of the vitality and sustainability is uncertainty. First, the financial crisis itself is not over yet. Roach quoted IMF (International Monetary Fund) said the latest estimates, the global toxic assets may be set aside about 3.4 trillion of asset impairment. To date, the realized asset impairment is also only about half that amount, which shows the profitability of financial institutions will further damage will be limited lending capacity.
Exit Strategy Risk into focus
In the market for a double-dip recession in the debate, the exit strategy is seen as a greater threat, it is also a focus on the two economists, one of the issues.
Krugman believes that the Fed plans to end in March of this year amounted to 1.25 trillion U.S. dollars of mortgage-backed securities purchase plan, as well as the total amount of about 175 billion U.S. dollars in federal agency securities acquisition plans. As the "exit strategy" as part of the content, which could lead to mortgage interest rates rise 1 percentage point, and thus hinder the economic recovery process. According to mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac reported previously shows that in the end of last December 31 of the week, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.14%, its fourth consecutive weeks of growth, the highest since last 8 the highest level since the month.
In order to promote the recovery of credit markets, the Fed in December 2008 decided to cut its benchmark interest rate to near-zero target range, while acquisition of the assets and credit schemes as the main monetary policy tool. Affected by the Federal Reserve's balance sheet total has grown from early 2007 to 858 billion U.S. dollars to expand to the current 2.24 trillion U.S. dollars.
http://www.maozdong.com/ 2010-1-7 10:32:00 maozdong.com
Nobel laureate in economics, Princeton University economics professor Paul Krugman, and Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach both recently issued a warning: a double-dip recession was inevitable. Krugman believes that the U.S. will have at least three possibilities will once again into recession, while the Roach believes the world will be faced with this risk.
Face a double-dip recession this year or
For the current economic situation, the two economists have said not optimistic. Krugman said that the place is not the possibility of a double-dip recession is low, but ranged between 30-40%. Roach said that because of the economic recovery, "stall" and this world will be facing a double-dip recession risks.
Krugman on the 5th interview, said that slowing economic growth, and once again the possibility of pushing up the unemployment rate is greater than 50%. He said: "stimulative impact of the measures are beginning to gradually subside, and in the middle of the year attributable to the intangible. Although a rebound in stocks are driving the current market pick up, but its effects will gradually disappear." He also pointed out that the United States in the third quarter last year, 2.2% of the GDP growth rate is not enough to reduce unemployment.
Roach was further extended to this concern on a global scale. 5, wrote in his Bloomberg column that is based on four aspects of the global economic rebound of the vitality and sustainability is uncertainty. First, the financial crisis itself is not over yet. Roach quoted IMF (International Monetary Fund) said the latest estimates, the global toxic assets may be set aside about 3.4 trillion of asset impairment. To date, the realized asset impairment is also only about half that amount, which shows the profitability of financial institutions will further damage will be limited lending capacity.
Exit Strategy Risk into focus
In the market for a double-dip recession in the debate, the exit strategy is seen as a greater threat, it is also a focus on the two economists, one of the issues.
Krugman believes that the Fed plans to end in March of this year amounted to 1.25 trillion U.S. dollars of mortgage-backed securities purchase plan, as well as the total amount of about 175 billion U.S. dollars in federal agency securities acquisition plans. As the "exit strategy" as part of the content, which could lead to mortgage interest rates rise 1 percentage point, and thus hinder the economic recovery process. According to mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac reported previously shows that in the end of last December 31 of the week, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.14%, its fourth consecutive weeks of growth, the highest since last 8 the highest level since the month.
In order to promote the recovery of credit markets, the Fed in December 2008 decided to cut its benchmark interest rate to near-zero target range, while acquisition of the assets and credit schemes as the main monetary policy tool. Affected by the Federal Reserve's balance sheet total has grown from early 2007 to 858 billion U.S. dollars to expand to the current 2.24 trillion U.S. dollars.
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